PFXSeptember 2026 release

The national pallet price index.

$6.77per pallet

PFX tracks the delivered price of a recycled 48x40 pallet, bought by the truckload in the U.S. Published every month, with a 12-month forecast.

Open the index 12-month forecast

PFX index, 10 years2025 = 100

Values before September 2026 are a backcast from the BLS wood pallet price index.

Index level: 107.7; 2025 = 100
Past 12 months: +7.6%; Change since Sep 2025
Quality: Tier B; Blended inputs
3-month forecast: +1.5%; Rising to $6.87 by Dec 2026

published indexes: composite, grades, yard

public price and demand series in the model

128

months of out-of-sample forecast testing

27%

less 1-month error than a no-change forecast (backtest)

Built like a benchmark

Defined specs. Real trades. Published rules.

PFX follows the practices price reporting agencies use for physical commodities: a standard specification, a hierarchy of inputs, minimum data rules, and an audit trail for every value.

Standard specs

Recycled 48x40 by the truckload, normalized for heat treatment and lot size. Delivered (buyer) and Yard (supplier) indexes by grade.

Input hierarchy

Completed transactions first, then firm quotes, then contributor submissions. A model carries a value forward only when data runs thin, and says so.

Publication rules

At least 8 trades and 4 counterparties for Tier A, no counterparty above 25% of volume, outliers screened. Every value carries a quality tier.

Governance

Versioned methodology, immutable releases sealed with a SHA-256 hash, a named approver, and conflicts of interest disclosed.

Forecast like a planning team

Five models. One honest range.

A driver regression on lumber, freight, labor and demand, plus autoregressive and exponential-smoothing models, combined by their track record. The bands come from real out-of-sample errors.

3 months: +1.5%
12 months: +3.3%
Direction right: 80%

Scenarios, drivers and the full scorecard →

BLS wood pallet price index and the PFX forecast to 2027

Actual Ensemble median 50% 80% 90% range

Who uses PFX

One number both sides can trust.

Pallet buyers

✓Benchmark every quote against the national delivered price
✓Budget next year's pallet spend with a probability range, not a guess
✓Write PFX-linked price adjustments into supply agreements
✓Time rebids before the market turns

Pallet suppliers and recyclers

✓Track yard prices (FOB) by grade, not just what buyers pay
✓Price new accounts off the market, region by region
✓Show customers a published reference for a price change
✓Plan core buying and inventory against the forecast

The backtest

126 months tested. 106 called right.

Every month since 2016, the ensemble's 3-month call made with only the data available that month, graded against what the BLS pallet index did. From October 2026 on, every live forecast is archived as published.

How it's tested →

Right (106) Wrong (20)

Hover a dot for the call

Data products

Headline free. Depth for professionals.

Free

The PFX composite, Grade A and Grade B, two years of history, and the forecast headline.

Open the index

PFX Pro

$79/mo

The full index, the forecast and the data.

Start PFX Pro

PFX Team

$249/mo

PFX Pro for up to 5 people, plus an analyst.

Start PFX Team

Enterprise

$6k+/yr

API feeds, index-linked contracts and redistribution rights.

Talk to us

Contributor program

Report your prices. Get PFX Pro free.

Buyers and suppliers who submit completed-trade prices each month get PFX Pro at no cost. Submissions are confidential, aggregated and never shown individually.

Become a contributor

The PFX release, the forecast and what moved, in one email a month.